Pro Tour Predictions

by Bill Stark | posted at 2010-02-26 15:29:00
tagged: WOTC, MTG, Magic, Wizards, Wizards of the Coast, Magic the Gathering, Pro Tour, PT, San Diego, Predictions

Every Pro Tour pundits and analysts, myself included, try to blind-guess the Top 8 of the Pro Tour. Historically the metric we've used to do this has been specific players, but for Pro Tour-San Diego I decided to try a new metric: nationality. Choosing specific players is a needle-in-the-haystack exercise that merits a success rate of 0-1 choices. This is hardly dramatic, and doesn't make for good television (or, I suppose, reading). So here's what I picked Friday using the new metric:

 

Bill's Projected Top 8:

2 Americans

2 Japanese

1 Slovak or Czech

1 Dutch Speaker

1 Non-Slovak, non-Czech, non-Dutch Speaking European

1 Other

 

Since this was the first time I was using the new system, let's break it down a little bit. The first two entries, 2 Americans and 2 Japanese, is pretty clear. I grouped players from both the Czech and Slovak Republics together, not because of American xenophobia but simply because, as a playgroup, they function almost as a single entity. Is this fair, or is it cheating two nations into one? If you consider the number of states or provinces from other nations that are equal in both size and population to either nation, and that historically they were once united (albeit under Communist rule), it's not simply a case of fudging to gain edge. I truly identify the Slovak and Czech groups as one playing entity, though I would certainly be willing to select both a Czech and a Slovak for a Top 8 if I thought they were going to do it. The system still needs tweaking, but I stand by this pick (even though it was a whiff).

 

How about one Dutch speaker? Technically not a nationality, but such is the oddness of Europe sometimes. The Netherlands are not the only nation of Dutch speakers (despite being the only nation of Dutch); the Flanders portion of Belgium is home to the second largest population of Dutch speakers in the world. While there are some colonial hold outs outside of Europe, the key factor is that over the past three seasons, there has been a player who speaks Dutch in nearly every single Top 8. I feel this is a fair lumping together of a nation and a half (a French or German speaking Belgian making Top 8, for example, wouldn't have counted; interesting footnote, the only Belgian player to ever make it past the Quarterfinals of a Pro Tour was French-speaking Geoffrey Siron), and stand by it.

 

One non-Dutch speaking, non-Slovak, non-Czech European? This seemed good at the time, but in retrospect, it's far too vague. I strike it from the record; going forward, we'll have to be more specific. After all, this includes powerhouses like France (Ruel, Ruel, Levy, Wafo-Tapa, Nassif, etc.) and Germany (Budde, Ruess, Baberowski, etc.) and darkhorses like Italy, Spain, and Portugal (home to Andre Coimbra, reigning World Champion), not to mention a dozen other countries. Too broad to be taken seriously; next time I'll make sure to be more specific.

 

Last but not least, we had one "other." This was to cover the Ming Xu phenomenon, in which a player from left field, from a country not known for its Magic prowess, steps up to the plate and knocks it out of the park making the cut to the Top 8. But it, like the last entry, was entirely too broad. Next time around, this will have to be a, you know, ACTUAL pick.

 

So, how'd I do? Here was the actual breakdown from the Pro Tour:

 

3 Americans

1 Japanese

2 German

1 Dutch

1 Belgian

 

I was one short for Americans, one over on Japanese, and one under on Dutch speaker. I hit the excessively broad Euro category, but because we're not counting that, well, we won't count it. Total batting percentage? Four out of eight, or .500.

 

I like this system far better than "I pick Chapin, Nassif, LSV, and five other pros you've heard of hoping one randomly hits" and I'll be using it for the rest of the season. There will be some tweaking involved (like not using those excessively broad categories), and it's a great opportunity to get feedback from you, the reader.

 

What do you think about the new system? How can it be improved? Share your thoughts through the forum link below.

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